silkywhisky
Kilchoman / Islay

KILCHOMAN Machir Bay

0.55× hidden gem NAS rating 4.7/5 · n=199
cheapest
€59.50
whiskylodge
intrinsic
€110.36
N
4

Is it worth the price?

KILCHOMAN Machir Bay is an Islay single malt Scotch from the Kilchoman distillery, released without an age statement. Tasters score it 4.7 out of 5 across 199 reviews. It is tracked at 4 retailers, ranging from €59.50 to €63.00, while the valuation model estimates a fair price of around €110.36. That is 0.55× the model estimate — well below the quality-predicted price, and one of the clearer value picks in the data. Of the 14 Kilchoman bottlings priced here, this is the strongest value.

Retailers tracked

Retailer Price
whiskylodge €59.50
whisky.fr €59.90
topdrinks €61.95
thewhiskyshop €63.00

How we got this number

The valuation model predicts a price from this bottling's inputs. The multiple is the actual market price divided by that prediction.

Inputs
Rating
4.66 / 5
Age
No age statement
Region
Islay
Distillery tier
Premium
Result
Predicted price
€110.36
Actual price (median)
€60.93
Multiple
0.55×
Verdict band
hidden gem (≤ 0.80×)

See the regression's coefficients →

Methodology estimate

The deterministic model from methodology.md: production cost per litre × bottle size, plus maturation cost per year, plus a cask premium, times an ABV factor — then multiplied by a quality grade summed across six 0–3 axes.

Cost floor
Production (€0.25/cl × 70 cl)
€17.50
Maturation (NAS→5 × €1.20/year)
€6.92
Cask premium (undeclared)
+€0.00
× ABV factor
×1.10
Cost floor
€26.86

NAS treated as 5 years for maturation cost (paper convention).

Quality grade (six 0–3 axes)
  • Process distinctness
    partial estate barley / floor malting on site; on-site floor malting; field-to-bottle 100% Islay range
    2 / 3
  • Cask provenance
    cask type not declared on bottle; partial single-estate malt
    0 / 3
  • Bottling integrity
    46.0% ABV; non-chill-filtered inferred from ABV; E150a caramel colouring not disclosed
    2 / 3
  • Ownership
    Anthony Wills (founder family) — independent or smaller group
    2 / 3
  • Heritage
    founded 2005 (21 years of operation)
    1 / 3
  • Reputation
    4.6583/5 across 199 reviews
    2 / 3
Quality score
9 / 18
Quality multiplier
×1.75
Intrinsic and multiple
Intrinsic value
€47.01
Actual price (median)
€60.93
Multiple
1.30×
Verdict band
mild premium

Maturation context

Islay · rolling 12 months: 1,867 mm at Dippen (63 km). Scotland W rolling 12-month rainfall2,543 mm, +39.90% vs 1995-2024 median.

Other bottlings from Kilchoman