silkywhisky
Bladnoch / Lowland

Bladnoch Samsara

0.83× fair value NAS rating 4.1/5 · n=1
cheapest
€64.20
thewhiskyshop
intrinsic
€87.70
N
2

Is it worth the price?

Bladnoch Samsara is a Lowland single malt Scotch from the Bladnoch distillery, released without an age statement. Tasters score it 4.1 out of 5 across 1 reviews. It is tracked at 2 retailers, ranging from €64.20 to €81.70, while the valuation model estimates a fair price of around €87.70. That is 0.83× the model estimate — almost exactly the quality-predicted price, with no meaningful brand premium. Of the 2 Bladnoch bottlings priced here, this is the weakest value.

Retailers tracked

Retailer Price
thewhiskyshop €64.20
inverurie €81.70

How we got this number

The valuation model predicts a price from this bottling's inputs. The multiple is the actual market price divided by that prediction.

Inputs
Rating
4.10 / 5
Age
No age statement
Region
Lowland
Distillery tier
Mid
Result
Predicted price
€87.70
Actual price (median)
€72.95
Multiple
0.83×
Verdict band
fair value (0.80× < … ≤ 1.20×)

See the regression's coefficients →

Methodology estimate

The deterministic model from methodology.md: production cost per litre × bottle size, plus maturation cost per year, plus a cask premium, times an ABV factor — then multiplied by a quality grade summed across six 0–3 axes.

Cost floor
Production (€0.18/cl × 70 cl)
€12.60
Maturation (NAS→5 × €1.20/year)
€6.92
Cask premium (undeclared)
+€0.00
× ABV factor
×1.00
Cost floor
€19.52

NAS treated as 5 years for maturation cost (paper convention).

Quality grade (six 0–3 axes)
  • Process distinctness
    small Lowland production; multiple closures incl. 1993-2015
    1 / 3
  • Cask provenance
    cask type not declared on bottle
    0 / 3
  • Bottling integrity
    ABV not declared; chill-filtration not disclosed; E150a caramel colouring not disclosed
    0 / 3
  • Ownership
    David Prior (independent) — independent or smaller group
    2 / 3
  • Heritage
    founded 1817 (209 years of operation); closures incl. 1993-2015
    2 / 3
  • Reputation
    4.1/5 across 1 review
    0 / 3
Quality score
5 / 18
Quality multiplier
×1.42
Intrinsic and multiple
Intrinsic value
€27.65
Actual price (median)
€72.95
Multiple
2.64×
Verdict band
brand premium

The two models disagree sharply here. The deal-score regression learns from peer prices that age and brand command €87.70 (0.83× the listed price), while the cost-and-quality methodology floors the bottle at €27.65 (2.64×). The gap is the brand premium the market pays beyond what materials, maturation and bottling integrity alone can justify.

Maturation context

Lowland · rolling 12 months: 1,272 mm at Sorbie (8 km). Scotland E rolling 12-month rainfall1,676 mm, +38.40% vs 1995-2024 median.

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